Fact filtering in the pursuit of truth

Fact filtering in the pursuit of truth

Photo by Vlad Tchompalov on Unsplash

Originally published 14 June 1999

Last week this col­umn took note of two expla­na­tions for the fos­sils known as ammonites. These ani­mals in stone look like ser­pents curled upon them­selves, or the tight­ly coiled horns of minia­ture rams.

One sto­ry, com­mon in medieval Eng­land, told how Saint Hil­da turned snakes to stone. In fact, these fos­sils are com­mon in rocks around Hilda’s con­vent at Whitby.

The oth­er sto­ry tells of crea­tures that lived in oceans tens of mil­lions of years ago, died, fell into sed­i­ments on the sea floor, were pet­ri­fied by nat­ur­al chem­i­cal process­es, and then lift­ed to their present posi­tions above the sea by geo­log­i­cal forces act­ing over eons of time.

Which sto­ry is true? Can we say with con­fi­dence that one sto­ry is truer than the oth­er? Does “truth” matter?

These ques­tions may sound sil­ly. Sure­ly, no one today believes Hil­da turned snakes to stone. For one thing, fos­sil ammonites are found all over the world, even in the high Himalayas. Hil­da would prob­a­bly not have been so glob­al in her mirac­u­lous powers.

But a sub­stan­tial num­ber of peo­ple today believe things about the ori­gin of fos­sils that are equal­ly pre­pos­ter­ous. And oth­ers, includ­ing many PhD post­mod­ernist schol­ars, say that the “sci­en­tif­ic” sto­ry is no less a cul­tur­al con­coc­tion than the sto­ry of Hil­da, and, rec­og­niz­ing this, that we should choose our “truth” on the basis of which sto­ry best advances an appro­pri­ate social agenda.

Sci­ence is just anoth­er kind of pol­i­tics, say these post-mod­ernist crit­ics. The impor­tant ques­tion to ask about a sci­en­tif­ic idea is not “How reli­ably has it been test­ed?” but “Who stands to gain?”

For exam­ple, Native Amer­i­can cre­ation sto­ries are as true as sto­ries of the Big Bang, say the sci­ence crit­ics. To call the for­mer “myths” and the lat­ter “Sci­ence” (with a big self-assertive S) is just anoth­er kind of Euro­cen­tric impe­ri­al­ism, no less arro­gant than the tak­ing of land and the killing of people.

Fur­ther­more, they say, by demot­ing Saint Hil­da in favor of James Hut­ton, Charles Lyell, and Charles Dar­win, we may be guilty of a touch of patri­ar­chal pretension.

All of which rais­es the fol­low­ing ques­tions: Can we trust sci­ence? Is “truth” a mat­ter of who has the pow­er? Are we free to believe what­ev­er makes us feel good?

Well, of course, the great thing about the late 20th cen­tu­ry — in many parts of the world — is that we are indeed polit­i­cal­ly free to believe what­ev­er we want. One can believe that Hil­da turned snakes to stone with­out any fear of being burned at the stake or brand­ed as a heretic. Peo­ple may snig­ger, but they won’t put you in thumbscrews.

But moral­ly the mat­ter is rather more com­pli­cat­ed, and each of us must take a stand on what we choose to believe. Thomas Hux­ley, Dar­win’s friend and cham­pi­on, made this man­i­festo: “My busi­ness is to teach my aspi­ra­tions to con­form to fact, not to try and make facts har­mo­nize with my aspi­ra­tions” — to which most sci­en­tists would say “Amen.”

The prob­lem, of course, is to know a fact when we see one.

Which is why so many of us choose not to rely upon our own fal­li­ble fac­ul­ties, but instead give cau­tious alle­giance to the “fil­ter” of sci­ence, as described by chemist Hen­ry Bauer in his book Sci­en­tif­ic Lit­er­a­cy and the Myth of the Sci­en­tif­ic Method.

Going into the top of the fil­ter is the whole range of pos­si­ble beliefs — from Hil­da to Hawk­ing, from the Nation­al Enquir­er to the Amer­i­can Jour­nal of Physics. The first step of the sci­en­tif­ic fil­ter­ing process usu­al­ly involves a request for fund­ing from an agency. These pro­pos­als are reviewed by oth­er sci­en­tists. Non­sense, stu­pid­i­ty, and pseu­do­science are screened out at this stage.

The sec­ond step is get­ting an idea pub­lished in the peer reviewed sci­en­tif­ic lit­er­a­ture. This gen­er­al­ly elim­i­nates egre­gious bias, exper­i­men­tal or math­e­mat­i­cal error, or out­right dishonesty.

Use­ful ideas in the pri­ma­ry lit­er­a­ture get cit­ed in oth­er work, and are adopt­ed by oth­er sci­en­tists to explain their obser­va­tions. Ideas that pass this test make it into the sec­ondary lit­er­a­ture — sum­ma­ry arti­cles in pres­ti­gious jour­nals. Before this hap­pens, sub­tle mis­takes and inge­nious fraud are usu­al­ly detect­ed and corrected.

Ideas that are adopt­ed wide­ly and pass the test of time end up in text­books. Blind alleys and obso­lete ideas fall by the wayside.

Even text­book “facts” are sub­ject to long and care­ful scruti­ny by the sci­en­tif­ic com­mu­ni­ty as it sub­mits ortho­dox ideas to the cru­cible of ever more care­ful exper­i­ments and observations.

What comes out the end of the fil­ter may not be Truth with a cap­i­tal T, but the fact that sci­ence has been so suc­cess­ful as a way of know­ing — and such an effec­tive basis of tech­nol­o­gy and med­i­cine. It sug­gests that what comes out of the fil­ter has a sat­is­fy­ing objectivity.

Is the fil­ter of sci­ence fool­proof? Of course not. But if post-mod­ern crit­ics of sci­ence have a more reli­able way of gen­er­at­ing “facts,” let’s hear it.

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