Conclusive science is the best kind

Conclusive science is the best kind

Image by Cloudinary (CC BY-SA 4.0)

Originally published 1 July 2003

Fif­teen thou­sand years ago, most of north­ern North Amer­i­ca was cov­ered with a con­ti­nent-span­ning glac­i­er a half-mile or more thick. The ice reached south to the val­leys of the present Ohio and Mis­souri rivers, and extend­ed from coast to coast.

With so much ice on the land, the sea lev­el was low­er, and the floor of today’s Bering Strait between Asia and Alas­ka was dry. Across this land bridge, Asian nomads migrat­ed into Alas­ka, which remained part­ly unglaciat­ed. But there the invaders were bot­tled up, blocked from mov­ing south­ward by the glaciers.

Then the glob­al cli­mate began warm­ing, and the ice start­ed melt­ing. An ice-free chan­nel opened down across Cana­da, between the moun­tain glac­i­ers in the west and the con­ti­nen­tal glac­i­er to the east. The Asians trekked south through this ice-walled chan­nel into what must have seemed like a dream­like Eden.

If there were humans in the Amer­i­c­as before these migrants arrived about 11,000 years ago, the evi­dence for their pres­ence is sparse and dis­put­ed. What the new arrivals did find was a thriv­ing fau­na of large and diverse mam­mals — ele­phant-like mam­moths, mastodons, rhi­nos, ground sloths as big as rhi­nos, beavers the size of bears, armadil­lo-like glyptodonts, saber-toothed tigers, and herds of hors­es and camels.

With­in a thou­sand years, this so-called megafau­na of North Amer­i­ca was gone.

Why did so many ani­mals become extinct so fast?

The Asian migrants brought with them a pow­er­ful new tech­nol­o­gy — spears tipped with fine­ly craft­ed flint points. Arche­ol­o­gists have found sites where flint points and the bones of slaugh­tered ani­mals are mingled.

Was human overkill the cause of the extinc­tions? At about the same time, the gen­er­al­ly warm­ing cli­mate expe­ri­enced an abrupt inter­val of bit­ter cold. Was cli­mat­ic shock the cul­prit? Or did the two togeth­er, hunt­ing and cli­mate change, do in the big animals?

Few arche­o­log­i­cal issues have gen­er­at­ed so much con­tro­ver­sy. The sci­en­tif­ic debate about the cause of the ice-age extinc­tions has become embroiled with polit­i­cal squab­bling over con­tem­po­rary envi­ron­men­tal issues.

The overkill the­o­ry is easy to under­stand, and fits with our image of our­selves as all-pow­er­ful, said Don­ald Grayson, a Uni­ver­si­ty of Wash­ing­ton arche­ol­o­gist. But is it true?

To answer the ques­tion, arche­ol­o­gists have tried to dis­cov­er exact­ly when the Asians arrived, when the cli­mate shock occurred, and when the ani­mals went extinct. The dat­ing meth­ods are not exact, how­ev­er, and the three kinds of evi­dence are sel­dom, if ever, found togeth­er. It’s like com­par­ing three clocks, none of which is keep­ing accu­rate time.

Now Guy Robin­son, David Bur­ney, and Lida Pig­ott Bur­ney of Ford­ham Uni­ver­si­ty in New York have devised an inge­nious way to mea­sure human migra­tion, cli­mate change, and ani­mal extinc­tion by the same clock, with unprece­dent­ed precision.

The researchers dug down through lay­ers of mud at four sites in New York, and mea­sured micro­scop­ic indi­ca­tors for each of the three rel­e­vant factors.

As a proxy for human pres­ence, they looked for char­coal dust blown into the sites from large fires; a sharp increase in such char­coal has marked the arrival of humans on islands around the world. For cli­mate, they exam­ined tree pollen, which records the tran­si­tion from glacial to post­glacial cli­mate. And for the ani­mals, they count­ed micro­scop­ic spores of a fun­gus that thrives in the dung of large animals.

The beau­ty of this research is that lay­er by lay­er the three mark­ers are found togeth­er in the mud, as if on the same pages of a book.

At all four sites, the suc­ces­sion of events was the same. First, the megafau­na starts col­laps­ing, fol­lowed quick­ly by the evi­dence of large fires. Only about a thou­sand years lat­er did the cli­mate deliv­er its wrench­ing shock. The researchers’ con­clu­sion: The North Amer­i­can megafau­na extinc­tions were pri­mar­i­ly caused by human overkill.

The smok­ing gun? Hard­ly. But what I love about this piece of work is its clev­er­ness. This is sci­ence at its best, an inge­nious bit of detec­tive work to answer a ques­tion that has been mud­died with the rhetoric of polit­i­cal debate.

No one claims that sci­ence is objec­tive, but it strives might­i­ly for objec­tiv­i­ty. In the end, a pre­pon­der­ance of evi­dence — repro­ducible and accept­ed by con­sen­sus — must resolve every controversy.

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